一. Macroeconomic Review in 2025: From "Policy Shift" to "Slower Growth"
The US economy in 2025 will exhibit a clear "three-stage evolution":
1. A strong rebound at the beginning of the year
2. A moderate slowdown in the second quarter
3. A structural slowdown after the third quarter
1. Economic Growth (GDP)
Q1–Q3 Real GDP growth range: 1.4% ~ 2.1%
Data Highlights:
⦁ The service sector remains resilient.
⦁ Manufacturing fluctuated repeatedly during the destocking phase.
⦁ The real estate market experienced a structural recovery due to falling interest rates.
⦁ Consumer spending slowed, but remained the main driver of growth.
So far, the United States has not entered a recession, but signs of "fading momentum" are very clear.
2. Inflation (CPI / PCE)
The overall inflation trend in 2025 is expected to remain "declining but sticky":
⦁Core CPI: 3.2% → 2.6%
⦁Core PCE: 2.8% → 2.3%
Key driving factors:
⦁ Rent inflation continues to decline
⦁ Goods deflation has offset some of the pressure on the service sector
⦁ Healthcare, insurance, and catering industries remain sticky
Conclusion: The decline in inflation is in line with the Fed's target, but service sector prices remain the main headwind.
3. Employment and the Labor Market
The 2025 employment data repeatedly signaled a "cooling down but not collapsing" trend:
⦁ Non-farm payrolls increased by 120,000 to 180,000 per month
⦁ Unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 4.2%
⦁ Wage growth slowed to 3.4%
The labor market has clearly returned to equilibrium from overheating.
二. Federal Reserve Policy: The Real Turning Point in 2025
In 2025, the Federal Reserve completed its formal shift from the 2022–2024 “tightening cycle”.
1. Review of resolutions made this year
As of November 2025, the Federal Reserve has:
✔ Interest rate cuts 3 times (cumulative 75bp)
⦁ March: -25bp
⦁ June: -25bp
⦁ September: -25bp Current Federal Funds Rate Range:
4.25% – 4.50%
The logic behind interest rate cuts:
⦁ Easing inflation
⦁ Slowing consumption
⦁ Cooling employment
⦁ Declining credit growth
⦁ Weakening corporate profit momentum
2. QT (Table Shrinking) Operations
The pace of balance sheet reduction will slow significantly in 2025, but will not completely stop.
The Federal Reserve prefers to maintain a "slow and passive balance sheet reduction" to ensure stable liquidity in the banking system.
三. Financial Market Performance in 2025
1. US Stocks (Equities)
US stocks are expected to experience high volatility in 2025:
⦁ S&P 500 annual range: 4,950 – 5,570
⦁ Technology stocks correct, large-cap valuations return to normal
⦁ Small-cap stocks rebound significantly due to interest rate cuts
⦁ Energy and industrial sectors lead the market
AI concept stocks are experiencing a healthy correction after the valuation bubble of 2023–2024
However, AI infrastructure (chips, data centers, security) remains strong.
2. Bonds (Fixed Income)
The 10-year US Treasury yield has declined from its 2024 high:
⦁ Beginning of the year: 4.60%
⦁ Currently: 3.95% – 4.10%
With the interest rate peak confirmed, Treasury bonds are poised to become one of the best-performing assets in 2025.
Corporate bonds have performed well, but lower-rated bonds are pressured by rising default risks.
3. Gold
Gold will remain in a super bull market structure in 2025:
⦁ Recurring tensions in the Middle East + worsening US fiscal deficit
⦁ Global central banks are increasing their gold holdings to a record high
⦁ Falling US Treasury real yields → driving up gold prices
Gold maintains its core weight (15%) in our office asset allocation.
四. 2025 Outlook (Q4 and 2026 Guidance)
Based on our Bridgewater-Style Macro System model:
1. The economy will continue to slow moderately, but a deep recession will be avoided.
Expected GDP: 1.2% – 1.8%
2. Inflation will return to around 2% in early 2026.
However, inflation in the service sector remains a key challenge.
3. The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates 1-2 more times in 2026.
However, the speed depends on the data and employment.
五. Investment Strategy Recommendations (EverStone Capital Office Customization)
1. Stocks (45%)
⦁ AI & Semiconductors: 15%
⦁ Industrials / Energy: 12%
⦁ Small-Cap Stocks (Benefiting from Interest Rate Cuts): 10%
⦁ Cybersecurity: 8%
2. Fixed Income (30%)
⦁ US Treasury Bonds (Medium to Long Term): 15%
⦁ Investment Grade Corporate Bonds: 10%
⦁ Emerging Market Local Currency Bonds: 5%
3. Gold and Commodities (15%)
⦁ Gold: 15%
4. Alternative Assets (10%)
⦁ Private Equity
⦁ Infrastructure
⦁ Energy Transition Projects
六. Overall Conclusion: 2025 is a "revised year of opportunity".
The US market entered a new macroeconomic phase in 2025:
From interest rate drivers → Shift to growth-driven；→ From asset bubbles → A shift towards a return to value.
The key to investment success will come from:
⦁ Diversification
⦁ Risk management
⦁ Structural thematic positioning
⦁ Seizing the rhythmic opportunities brought about by interest rate cuts
2025 will not be an easy year, but it will be a year with huge structural opportunities.