一、Macroeconomic Framework Restructuring: From Trade Conflicts to Capital Wars
Entering 2026, the global financial system is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The world is transitioning from a "trade war logic" to a deeper capital war phase.
The core characteristics of this stage are:
⦁Conflicts are no longer limited to the flow of goods and tariff barriers.
⦁Capital flows, monetary credit, and sovereign debt security become the focus of the game.
⦁Investment decisions begin to be significantly constrained by political credibility and institutional stability.
The recent reassessment of U.S. asset allocations by foreign governments, sovereign wealth funds, and long-term institutional investors is a direct reflection of this structural change.
二、US-EU tariff escalation and the "Greenland crisis": the financialization of political risk
The Trump administration's continued pressure on European allies through tariffs and its direct linking of geopolitical objectives (the Greenland issue) to trade negotiations has had a triple impact on capital markets:
1️⃣ The risk premium of alliances is rising.
Historically, capital has often assumed that "alliances possess inherent stability." However, the current threat of tariffs imposed by the United States on European countries is undermining this assumption, making political risk explicitly appear in asset pricing models for the first time.
2️⃣ The narrative of "selling America" is making a temporary comeback.
European institutions have begun publicly discussing reducing their exposure to US Treasury bonds, with a large Danish pension fund explicitly stating its intention to withdraw from some of its US Treasury holdings. This marks a significant turning point: US Treasury bonds are no longer considered politically neutral and absolutely safe assets.
3️⃣Demand for hard assets has increased significantly.
Against the backdrop of overlapping uncertainties in tariffs, capital flows, and geopolitics, funds have rapidly flowed into "non-sovereign credit assets" such as gold and silver, pushing gold prices to record highs.
三、The US Dollar and US Treasuries: Structural, Not Cyclical, Challenges
The current problems facing the dollar system cannot be explained by short-term interest rates or economic data, but rather by the marginal weakening of the trust mechanism.
⦁The United States continues to expand its fiscal deficit and issue large amounts of national debt.
⦁Amid rising political uncertainty, overseas holders are beginning to reassess the risk-reward profile.
⦁When "holding US dollars" and "trust in the US political system" are no longer highly aligned, the system itself enters a vulnerable phase.
If major creditor nations develop doubts about the predictability of the rules, capital allocation behavior will undergo a structural shift. Dollar assets will need to compensate for institutional and political risks with higher returns and greater flexibility.
四、Gold: From Tactical Safe Haven to Strategic Anchor Asset
In the current macroeconomic context, the role of gold has undergone a fundamental change.
Gold's triple properties are being repriced:
⦁Non-sovereign credit assets: not dependent on any country's fiscal or political commitments.
⦁Capital War Hedging Tools: Possessing Unique Advantages in Financial Sanctions, Capital Controls, and Conflict Escalation
⦁Combined stabilizer: Provides uncorrelated returns when stocks, bonds, and currencies are under simultaneous pressure.
We recommend allocating 5%–15% of your portfolio to gold. In the current environment, we believe this suggestion is not only reasonable, but also on the conservative side.
五、Other key trends: Energy, resources, and the spillover of risks from the global bond market.
1️⃣ Energy and Key Minerals
Energy, commodities, and strategic resources are being redefined as:
⦁National security assets
⦁"Hard bargaining chips" in geopolitical games
⦁Core allocation targets under long-term supply and demand imbalance
2️⃣Sources of instability in the global bond market
Apart from the United States, the dramatic fluctuations in the Japanese government bond market are making Japan an "exporter" of global bond market risks.
If risk parity funds are forced to deleverage on a large scale, it could trigger a cross-market chain reaction and impact global asset valuations.
六、2026 Portfolio Assessment and Allocation Recommendations
At this stage, a forward-looking global investment portfolio should adhere to the following principles:
✔ Diversify country risk, not just asset class.
✔ Increase the proportion of non-credit assets and reduce dependence on a single sovereign system.
✔ Maintaining liquidity and tactical flexibility to respond to policy and geopolitical shifts.
Reference configuration framework (range):
⦁Gold and precious metals: 5%–15%
⦁Energy and critical resource assets: 10%–20%
⦁High-quality, cash-flow-stable core enterprise assets: selective allocation
⦁Liquidity and Tactical Assets: Maintaining an Adequate Ratio
⦁Exercise caution with long-term sovereign debt, especially for countries with both fiscal and political risks.
七、Conclusion: A world under repricing
The global market in 2026 will no longer be a "peacetime asset optimization problem," but rather:
The question is how to find a long-term stable anchor amidst capital wars, geopolitical conflicts, and institutional restructuring.
History has repeatedly proven:
When trade conflicts escalate into a game of capital and currency, and when trust is eroded, capital will eventually return to hard currency, decentralized systems, and assets anchored to real value.
For investors with a long-term vision and risk awareness, this is not a crisis, but rather a stage where their cognitive advantages begin to materialize.