1. Event background: Tariff tools are restarted, and global assets are repriced
⦁On May 23, 2025, US President Donald Trump released a series of tough trade remarks on his social media Truth Social, the main contents of which include:
⦁Proposed to impose a 25% tariff on all iPhones not manufactured in the United States;
⦁It is recommended to impose a 50% tariff on EU luxury goods and pharmaceutical products defined by the White House from June 1.
Trump's remarks triggered widespread market fluctuations:
⦁US technology stocks fell across the board, and Apple's intraday decline once reached 3.7%;
⦁The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 2%, with German manufacturing stocks and luxury goods leading the decline;
⦁The US dollar index rose in the short term, and gold and US bond prices rose simultaneously.
2. Global Outlook: Three-level impact and trend evolution
1️⃣ The global supply chain structure faces a secondary deconstruction
Multinational companies represented by Apple will be forced to re-evaluate the layout of their manufacturing bases. Although India can undertake some low-end and mid-end assembly processes, high-end assembly, chip packaging, and core components still rely on precise cooperation between China and the United States.
We predict that: If Apple returns manufacturing to the United States, the cost of each iPhone will increase by 18-24%, and will hit its profit margins and global pricing competitiveness. Other technology, medical equipment, and luxury goods companies will also face similar difficulties.
2️⃣ Policy expectations reversed sharply, triggering valuation compression
The market previously expected short-term stability in US-EU trade relations and compression of risk premiums in the technology sector. This round of tariff proposals will force the market to reassess policy uncertainty and mid-term corporate earnings visibility.
Financial Capital Office model calculation: If the EU's export tariffs on US products are actually implemented at 50%, the ROE of German luxury goods and auto stocks will be reduced by 5.2-6.8 percentage points, and valuations may need to be compressed by 8-12%.
3️⃣ The safe-haven properties of US bonds and gold are enhanced, and global capital may rotate
Policy uncertainty strengthens the demand for asset allocation to combat inflation and systemic risks. US bonds, gold, energy, agricultural commodities, and strategic resources (such as lithium, cobalt, and copper) may receive periodic attention.
III. Asset allocation recommendations: defensive return, re-evaluation of manufacturing chain
📊 Short-term (1-3 months) strategy
⦁ US technology stocks (FAANG): underweight/ZTE, tax and regulatory uncertainty superimposed on high valuations
⦁ Gold (XAU/USD): overweight, policy and risk aversion drive, supporting gold prices
⦁ Long-term US bonds: overweight, interest rates peak + risk aversion inflows
⦁ Eurozone export stocks: underweight, highly sensitive to trade policy shocks
⦁ India & Mexico Manufacturing ETF: overweight, preferred allocation in the direction of supply chain substitution
🔭 Medium- and long-term (6-12 months) layout direction
1. "Re-industrialization" chain investment main line
⦁ The return of North American manufacturing will promote the upgrading of local infrastructure, energy, industrial automation, semiconductor localization and other industrial chains.
⦁ Related companies include: Applied Materials, Emerson Electric, Schneider Electric.
2. Beneficiaries of decentralized supply chains
⦁India, ASEAN, Mexico and other manufacturing alternative countries will benefit in the medium and long term;
⦁Recommended attention: India mid-end manufacturing ETF (such as INDA), Mexico industrial REIT, Southeast Asian logistics sector.
3. New inflation asset allocation
⦁Resource commodities will be re-examined as part of long-term asset allocation;
⦁It is recommended to maintain 5-10% gold, 5% energy, and 3% agricultural commodity exposure in the portfolio.
4. Not just an election prelude, but a structural turning point
Trump’s speech this time is not an isolated incident, but a phased accelerator for the global industrial chain to switch from efficiency priority to strategic security priority. Regardless of whether its tariffs are actually implemented, companies and investors must recalibrate the boundaries between globalization and deglobalization.
The capital market is entering the early stages of the "post-decoupling era" - this is a cycle in which political risks penetrate economic pricing, corporate global strategies and capital flow logic, and asset layout must be carried out with a more acute global perspective and policy sensitivity.