一、 Summary: The engine continues to roar, but the ceiling is beginning to crack
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) once again delivered a brilliant report card in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025: revenue increased by 69% year-on-year to US$44.1 billion, far exceeding market expectations (US$43.1 billion). Among them, data center business revenue reached US$39.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73%, accounting for 88% of overall revenue, further consolidating its dominant position in the global AI infrastructure supply chain.
Despite this, we believe that Nvidia has gradually entered the "mature growth adjustment period": the rise of external trade barriers, the continuation of export restrictions on China, and the high base effect of the AI server market may suppress its medium-term growth elasticity.
二、Key Financial Highlights
Indicator This Quarter’s Performance Market Expectation YoY Growth
Total Revenue $44.1B $43.1B +69%
Data Center Revenue $39.1B $39.3B +73%
H20 Inventory Write-down -$4.5B – N/A
Estimated Revenue Potential ~$52.1B – +20% Potential Gain
Without Export Restrictions
Q2 Guidance $45.0B (±2%) $45.9B Slightly Below
Expectations
三、Structural investment trends: from AI chips to global computing power base
1. The logic of “chip as infrastructure” remains unchanged:
⦁ Nvidia is still the "pick and shovel" supplier in the AI era, and the CUDA ecosystem and its GPU dominance constitute a highly sticky "moat".
⦁ Hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are still its main customer base.
2. Mid-term pressure points to watch:
⦁China's market share has dropped from 95% at its peak to about 50%.
⦁It is expected that the export restrictions on H20 chips will result in a loss of up to US$15 billion in revenue opportunities in 2025.
3. Data center inventory reduction risks emerge:
⦁The financial report disclosed that the inventory impairment was as high as $4.5B, indicating that the overstocking at the end of 2024 is being corrected.
⦁Although it is not a systemic risk, it shows that downstream customers are purchasing more rationally, and the volatility will intensify in the later period of high growth.
四、Investment advice and valuation outlook
Valuation level:
⦁ The current forward PE of NVDA is about 34 times (FY2025), which is higher than the average of the semiconductor industry (24-26 times), but acceptable because it has strong gross profit margin and free cash flow protection.
Future focus:
⦁The direction of US policy toward China after the November election;
⦁The progress of compliant shipments of H20 and subsequent B-series chips;
⦁GPU lifecycle management capabilities and progress in transformation to software/services (such as NVIDIA AI Enterprise).
五、EverStone Capital Strategic Recommendations (2nd half of 2025)
📌 Recommended rating: Maintain "Overweight"
📌 Allocation weight recommendation:
⦁In the global technology allocation, Nvidia’s weight is maintained in the top five core assets in the AI theme
⦁Increase holdings of US domestic AI infrastructure ETFs and adjust related supply chain exposure in the Asia-Pacific market
📌 Risk hedging advice:
⦁Hedge technology volatility with gold, money market instruments or healthcare and utility assets
⦁Focus on alternative AI semiconductor targets such as AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, etc.
六、Investment Summary
Nvidia is still the strongest "wave player" in the AI wave. Despite geopolitical risks and the impact of the destocking cycle, the growth engine remains resilient, driven by its leading technology stack and high demand for global data centers.
As investors, we need to maintain the expected combination of "high growth + high volatility", adjust the time perspective, use a structural perspective to cross cyclical fluctuations, and seize the core assets in this technological revolution.